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Mar 1, 2012

AdSense: Revenue Prediction

Until very recently, the AdSense UI featured “today’s estimated earnings”; which incorrectly suggested that this is the amount you could expect to receive that day. That wasn’t the case; it really just showed how much had been earned so far (‘estimated’ to give Google some moving space). The interface now labels this as “Today so far”, which is far more accurate.

It did give the idea of creating our own revenue prediction model, which would be useful for allowing you to understand whether today’s earnings was on track with expected performance.
We’ve now figured out how to collect revenue data from AdSense and analysed how the intraday earnings trends over a 24-hour period, so had just one missing piece to solve. The time and percent values from the prior analysis were placed into an array and a function created to return an estimate of the full day’s earnings based on this historical data.

The output now reads as:

Next: getting this data on your mobile.